09.10.20 Technical analysis BTC / USD – Surprising breakout up, what’s next? (Update)

Yesterday later in the afternoon I added to yesterday’s analysis on Bitcoin (BTC) still a short update, because you must have noticed that there was a breakthrough from the triangle formed for several weeks. The joke is that the breakthrough occurred on the opposite side than most people would expect. So either it’s a bull trap or we really have to think about the Bitcoin market in a different context.

Update 16:22

So the price of that bull flag was pumping, which helped to overcome the resistance to about 10,926 USD. According to the volume profile, there was a slow accumulation, which means that if the price falls here, it can be expected that they will prevent it.

Currently, the exchange rate is attacking the top wall of the bull flag (red dashed) and so far it is just consolidation. I would be quite surprised if the breakthrough did today. Anyway, even at these levels it seems to be shopping.

Remember that it is still quite probable that the upper wall of the triangle will be retested. We’ll see what comes out of it in the end.


My announced scenario made technical sense, but only in the context of the fact that we are not yet completely sure about the bull trend. We have stepped on it, but nothing has been confirmed. However, this does not mean that the market subconsciously perceives it completely differently. I have noticed that, in general, everyone expects the bull trend “soon”, but at the same time they expect a drop in the short to medium term.

I would say that we are to some extent divided in this regard. Returning to the technical side of the market, it was interesting to see that the individual market structures for altcoins basically had only a corrective (bullish context) form. It confused me a lot, because on BTC the structure looked completely different. If BTC pumps again, take the poison that the alts from those correction wedges and channel pump solidly too.

Current situation at 4H TF BTC / USD

First, we recap everything on a 4H time frame, where the breakthrough through the upper edge of the triangle is visible. The breakout itself is certainly valid as it is backed by volumes. It’s nothing monstrous, but in the connotation of the size of the candle, it’s ok. However, when the daylight has closed over the upper edge of the triangle, there is a real chance that the expansion will continue today.

There is even a bull flag, but we will show it on the hourly chart. But now I want to get to the most important thing – when the price is pumping up from the triangle for the time being, it has certainly not been distributed in it. On the contrary, there was a rather accumulation in it, and if it is not a bull trap or some similar force game on the part of the big player, then he will defend his newly accumulated positions.

But it hasn’t won yet, because we stopped right at the first S / R level of $ 10,926 and mainly we are still within the bull flag, which at 4H looks like an ordinary descending channel. So the top wall of the pattern is kind of decisive, and until we get through it, there’s not much to celebrate.

However, if you manage to overcome the top wall and at the same time the S / R level of 11,200 USD, then you can count on a proper FOMO. I believe that a substantial part of shorts have their stop losses placed just above this level. As for the shorts’ stopwatch, some were probably waiting for a complete avalanche after the break from the triangle. But obviously there weren’t many stopwatches here, and they’ll probably be just over $ 11,200.

Indicators

The RSI curve rotated below the threshold of 70 points. I must acknowledge that after three weeks we reached the highest values ​​of indicators. According to the histogram on the MACD, the momentum really was not negligible.

Current situation at 1H TF BTC / USD

As I mentioned in the text above, the course after the pump consolidated us into a small bull flag. So the market is definitely preparing to continue. In addition to the said price resistance, we also came across a pivot R1. So the stop makes all the more sense. As for the previous price action, the first signal was to break through the local resistance trend.

The first larger impulse candle made it clear that something was going on, and immediately the thought crossed my mind that we might not go down. Soon there was a breakout through the upper edge of the triangle. As for the volume profile, this week there was quite a significant activity on the market. Someone just shopped slowly and then fired.

As for the small bull flag, according to the volume profile, something is happening within the pattern. Rather, it is a reacumulation with a subsequent shot, but the possibility cannot be thrown and the upper edge of the triangle is tested. It can happen and it does not mean any problem at all, so don’t panic when the price drops by about 1% in an instant.

Conclusion

However, in the context of the global market, the pump makes quite a sense. The dollar index does not look to grow, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq stock indices are gaining strength every day. I’m almost kidding that it’s better to trade Bitcoin based on stock indices.

As a bonus, I’m attaching the DXY dollar index. The declining canal begins in March and there is a visible indirect relationship with the development of the Bitcoin exchange rate. The local bottom formed on the DXY on September 1, the day Bitcoin solidly began dumping and then consolidating into a triangle. The index seems to build on the previous decline, which is definitely favorable for BTC.

ATTENTION: No data in the article is an investment board. Before you invest, do your own research and analysis, you always trade only at your own risk. The kryptomagazin.cz team strongly recommends individual risk considerations!

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