[정치]Liberation Day congratulatory speech, what kind of content…

■ Host: Anchor Han Yeon-hee, Anchor Park Seok-won
■ Cast: Jo Jin-goo, Director, Japan Center, Institute of Far Eastern Studies, Kyungnam University / Park Won-gon, Professor, Department of North Korean Studies, Ewha Womans University

* The text below may differ from the actual broadcast content, so please check the broadcast for more accurate content.

[앵커]

President Yoon will present the direction of national administration through a congratulatory speech on Liberation Day tomorrow and a press conference on the 100th day after his inauguration three days later.

[앵커]

There are a lot of domestic issues that need to be resolved, but a solution for establishing a peace regime in Northeast Asia such as North Korea and Japan is also an urgent task. We will diagnose the twisted situation in Northeast Asia with Cho Jin-gu, Director of the Japan Center for Far Eastern Studies at Kyungnam University, and Park Won-gon, a professor of North Korean Studies at Ewha Womans University. .

Come on in two minutes. First of all, a congratulatory speech is scheduled for the 77th anniversary of Liberation Day, but the theme that cannot be left out is the relationship between Korea and Japan. Now, there is a lot of interest in what kind of position President Yoon will present. What story will come out first?

[박원곤]

Most of the stories on Liberation Day are always fixed. Since Liberation Day has a meaning, of course, there will be talk about Japanese issues, and how do you interpret the overall meaning and history of Liberation Day? This, in fact, is something we need to pay attention to this time.

Because the view of Liberation Day under the Moon Jae-in administration, which was previously a so-called progressive government, and the view of the conservative administration, the Yun Seok-yeol administration, may be slightly different. you can see that part. Another thing, of course, will be talking about the North Korean issue.

President Yoon has already talked about it, and the government continues to talk about it, but because it is a so-called bold plan, there will be some parts that show North Korea one aspect of the Yun Seok-Yeol administration’s North Korea policy.

Besides that, as you said at the beginning, the situation in Northeast Asia is so difficult and twisted that there is a possibility that any plans such as how Korea can bring peace to Northeast Asia, centering on Liberation Day, will be revealed.

[조진구]

As Professor Park said, Korea-Japan relations are in the worst state as you know well, but the Moon Jae-in administration initially expressed its intention to cooperate, but it was tangled up over historical issues. So, after 2019, we will have a conversation, but we have left the door open.

However, Japan is not responding to the dialogue, it was a position like this. However, since the inauguration of the Yun Seok-yeol government, Minister Park Jin has actually visited Japan for a long time, and the Minister of Foreign Affairs, Korea, China and Japan, but the summit meeting, Defense Minister and Foreign Minister. Conversations are taking place through various channels.

So, let’s solve the problem together through dialogue. I wonder if I will be able to deliver this message once again.

[앵커]

You also talked about meeting at various occasions, but what we are putting forward is value diplomacy. Strengthen the ROK-U.S. alliance with the United States and establish Korea-China relations with China based on mutual respect.

While we are talking like this, we are starting the restoration of Korea-Japan relations this time. Do you think this will be fruitful?

[박원곤]

With the inauguration of the Yun Seok-Yeol administration, so-called value diplomacy is being talked about as a policy principle of foreign policy, but we will have to wait a little longer to see what concrete is being said.

Because, as is the case with Korea and most foreign governments, it probably takes six months or a year at the earliest after inauguration, and the basic policy of foreign policy appears in the form of a foreign and security strategy guideline.

So from my understanding, I think the Yun Seok-yeol government is also working on it. Nevertheless, I have already stated a few times about value diplomacy. The identity of the Republic of Korea, its identity as a liberal democratic country, and the so-called world order will be taken in accordance with such principles as the liberal international order.

However, if we only look at the expression here, in fact, we have no room for conflict with the United States and Japan. Because the United States, Japan, and Korea are countries that share the value of liberal democracy. If so, how to share values ​​with China remains the most important issue.

For this reason, the government will develop Korea-China relations based on universal values ​​with respect to China, which the Ministry of Foreign Affairs reported in the last government presidential business report. Universal values, therefore, in terms of the three countries, the most important aspect of value diplomacy is how to re-establish relations with China.

But in fact, as Professor Cho just said, the most difficult thing in the current situation is the problem with Japan. Of course, there are many pending issues with China, including THAAD. How will we solve the problem with Japan right now? Although we share our values, I think that is the most important because we still have an immediate problem: the forced labor issue.

[앵커]

As you said, the forced labor issue is the biggest challenge right now. The biggest stumbling block is the issue of compensation for victims of forced labor. Now, although a private consultative body was launched last month, there are limitations such as the fact that the victims are missing.

[조진구]

I do not know. I can’t help but think that it’s quite difficult. As you said, the Civilian Council was held three times, but I attended the second time and did not attend the third time. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs submitted an opinion to the judiciary, but there was no prior consultation with the plaintiff.

In addition, the plaintiffs and victims want dialogue with Japanese companies. And I’m requesting an apology from the Japanese side, and Minister Park Jin visited Japan in July and said at a foreign press conference on July 27 that he delivered this message to Foreign Minister Hayashi.

So, we do our best, but in order to solve this problem, Japan needs to show sincerity. The fact that he has this kind of character is that he wants them to respond to the conversation and apologize in the end, but the Japanese government has not yet expressed such an intention.

That is why the Korean government must come up with a solution and solve this problem as soon as possible so that even economic and security issues can be restored to their original state, but I think the Japanese side is not ready yet.

[앵커]

It would be important to meet through various occasions and continue dialogue, but the current semiconductor supply chain consultative body, the so-called Chip 4 Alliance, includes Korea, the United States, Taiwan, and Japan as well. It is led by the US, but if we join, can we try to improve relations with Japan through this?

[박원곤]

For this chip 4, our government doesn’t want to use the term alliance. Because if that happens, the meaning of China’s check and exclusion is too strong. In fact, it is clear that this chip 4 that the US is talking about is keeping China in check.

So, except for China, the other key semiconductor countries, Taiwan, Korea, Japan, and the United States will cooperate together. Korea has already agreed to participate in the preliminary talks, and its internal policy is very likely to eventually go into Chip 4.

Even if we look at the stories of government officials, we use the expression “rule maker” in English, where we go in early and make rules rather than going in later, emphasizing the meaning of going in and making rather than following the rules. I think.

Because what we’ve experienced before is the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework, or IPEF in English. It was also very controversial because it checked China, but as Korea and ASEAN countries entered during the initial launch process, many aspects of China’s check-in disappeared.

There were comprehensive aspects, and my government thinks that Minister Park Jin may have focused on such a story even when he met with Director Wang Yi this time. Your relationship with Japan is subtle.

Of course, because our professor is really an expert, but Japan also wants to keep Korea in check. Because Japan was leading the semiconductor industry, but it has been a while since Korea lost its competitiveness in semiconductors.

So, in this process of creating so-called supply chains and new technology standards, although not explicitly, there is a clear intention to take back the competitiveness they have lost anyway. In that respect, I think that it is important for Korea to join Chip 4.

[앵커]

what do you think?

[조진구]

As Professor Park said now, in the case of our semiconductors, we are practically ahead of Japan. Japan is saying that it will nurture and rebuild the Japanese semiconductor industry through the Economic and Security Act.

We are already behind Korea, but we have Samsung Electronics in mind. We are willing to cooperate not only with Japanese companies but also with Taiwan, the United States, or European countries, but we have never expressed our intention to cooperate with Korea on semiconductor issues.

That is why, in the end, we plan to support Japanese companies through economic legislation, targeting our company, Samsung Electronics, as the main target. Therefore, I think that economic problems will be difficult to solve if the overall Korea-Japan relations are not improved, and there is a possibility that the relations between Korea and Japan may deteriorate a little more in semiconductor matters.

[앵커]

Against this backdrop, today is the day to commemorate the comfort women victims of the Japanese military. As mentioned earlier, although there is a subtle difference in temperature between the former government and the current government and Japan, former President Moon Jae-in directly mentioned the comfort women of the Japanese military in his congratulatory speech on Liberation Day in his first year in office. Will the Yun Seok-Yeol government make such statements?

[조진구]

There is, of course, a possibility. And the Japanese military comfort women issue is not only a Korean problem, it is not a problem between Korea and Japan. Therefore, if we look at these issues based on universal values, norms, and issues that can penetrate the international community, we can fully demonstrate our presence as us, so we can comment on the Japanese military comfort women issue, and In some cases, it is difficult to actually bring Korea-Japan relations back to the starting point without solving this problem.

Therefore, since we will present a sincere response, we have no choice but to deliver such a message that Japan must also respond. So, in that sense, there is a difference in basic perception between Korea and Japan that it is also a historical issue.

And because there are some differences between the two governments or the judiciary, it is necessary to bridge these differences, and in fact, the role of political leaders in overcoming these differences is huge.

I will do it myself, so I think it would be best to deliver this message when the Japanese Prime Minister also makes a political decision and we can work together to solve the problem by gathering wisdom.

[앵커]

You mentioned, and US House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi, who recently visited Korea, said that I am proud that the US Congress passed a resolution on the comfort women issue. Chairman Pelosi has consistently taken such a friendly attitude toward Korea. Could this be a means to pressure Japan?

[박원곤]

Chairman Pelosi clearly has a personal interest in the comfort women issue, and as I said here this time, a resolution passed by the US Congress in 2007 and is now coming out. He was the most vocal and raised issue in Congress.

Although he is of Japanese descent, he is from California, and he is a person who has worked very hard on the comfort women issue. I spoke with Chairman Kim Jin-pyo, who was proud to have passed a resolution on the comfort women agreement with that lawmaker in 2015.

By the way, didn’t the United States have an agreement on comfort women, that is, the comfort women agreement between Korea and Japan in 2015? The way you look at it is complicated. Because basically, there is a position that we should respect the comfort women agreement that was 15 years ago.

A person like Rep. Mike Honda, whom I just talked about, is actually the most objective and person who has spoken out about the comfort women issue for the past 20 years. It is far from perfect for the comfort women agreement in 2015, but it is a historical milestone in the right direction.

So, this is the view from the perspective of American politics in general. It’s not perfect, but it’s the position that Korea and Japan did their best in their own way, so it’s important to acknowledge this and keep going.

But of course the Biden administration, wasn’t this during the Obama administration? But Biden was the vice president during the Obama administration, and most of them have direct experience at the time, so we approach it very cautiously. Therefore, we do not directly intervene in issues between Korea and Japan.

Instead, there is a historical sensitivity between Korea and Japan, so cooperation between Korea and Japan is necessary.

[앵커]

Let’s change the topic a bit. In tomorrow’s Liberation Day congratulatory speech, President Yoon, of course, will send a message regarding North Korea policy.

[박원곤]

I have a few messages. First of all, both the Ministry of Unification and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and recently Minister Park Jin talked about it at the ARF meeting, and it is very likely that it will be announced that it is a so-called bold plan.

So, there are two pillars to a bold plan. This has already been disclosed in the work report of the Ministry of Unification. So, the biggest goal of the bold plan is the denuclearization of North Korea. It is clear that the Yun Seok-Yeol administration attaches great importance to the issue of denuclearization in its relations with North Korea.

Therefore, there are two ways to actually bring about denuclearization of North Korea. One is talking about economic incentives, and the other is security guarantee. Security guarantees that North Korea always insists on. I will tell you two things. So, I think there is a high possibility that there will be specific details about it.

[앵커]

How do you see it?

[조진구]

I am also curious about the contents of the bold plan. In fact, given the current inter-Korean relations and North Korea’s position, there is little chance that it will respond to any bold plan. Moreover, the international situation is changing rapidly, and the US, Japan, and the Western world’s checks on China are being strengthened, and relations with Russia have deteriorated considerably after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February.

Then, while the relations between China, Russia and North Korea are strengthening, the three countries are talking about security cooperation, but there is a serious problem of how to do it. That’s why the US-Korea joint exercise, which has been said before, will probably be the largest since it was suspended.

And some rimpack training a while ago. Therefore, there is little chance that North Korea will respond using this as an excuse, and there is considerable movement in Japan’s change. Japan will continue to strengthen its defense capabilities since last year.

After five years, we will strengthen it and increase the defense cost. And with North Korea’s missile bases in mind, we’re also considering having so-called anti-radiation capabilities. North Korea has already criticized this move.

Therefore, from the perspective of the Korean government, it is difficult for any bold plan to attract North Korea’s response, so let’s do our part in the current situation. Since North Korea will also go its own way, I wonder if it would be desirable to conduct training that we have not been able to do before and to strengthen our deterrence or ability to deal with North Korea.

If so, wouldn’t it be difficult to find an opportunity to eventually resolve the deadlock in inter-Korean relations or North Korea-US relations? I once criticized President Moon Jae-in for his speech on Liberation Day in 2019 by using very harsh language in Jopyeong-tong the next day.

So, if you make a mistake, there is a good chance that North Korea will criticize the contents of this Liberation Day speech through harsh swearing. Isn’t there already an emergency quarantine meeting a while ago?

There, Vice Director Kim Yeo-jeong had already given a notice. That’s why North Korea implemented what it had once foretold. So, the only thing left is how to respond, I just hope it doesn’t go in a direction that can escalate tension. However, I think that there is a sufficient possibility that North Korea can respond to something, and if it goes wrong, it can completely destroy inter-Korean relations under the previous regime and nullify the entire 9.19 Panmunjom Declaration.

[앵커]

You mentioned quite a few issues. You talked about the upcoming ROK-US joint exercise, and you also talked about the speech of Vice-President Kim Yeo-jeong, which was recently held. How do you rate it? Will you be very rebellious about what will happen soon?

[박원곤]

North Korea usually announces its position on the government within two to three months when a new government emerges in South Korea. In that respect, Kim Jong-un directly stated his position on the South Korean policy at the Victory Day they talked about on July 27.

As expected, a very strong stance emerged. Through that position, he said that he would go back to adversarial relations without improving relations with Korea for the time being, and at the emergency quarantine meeting that Professor Cho just talked about, Kim Yeo-jeong once again reiterated the rule that it is the main enemy in relations with South Korea. I did.

In fact, in the month of June 2020, Kim Yeo-jung took the lead and destroyed the joint liaison office, defining inter-Korean relations as adversarial relations. Then, in October of last year, Kim Jong-un said that South Korea and the United States are not their main enemies, but that was for a different purpose.

In any case, since the expression “adversarial rather than dynamic” was used again in the broad framework, the overall direction is obviously very high for Korea at least for the time being.

[앵커]

There has been an unusual incident recently, so I’ll just mention this one last time. In a speech, North Korean Vice-Chairman Kim Yo-jong mentioned that her older brother, Chairman Kim Jong-un, had recently suffered from a high fever. Since it is very unusual for a person in charge of propaganda and agitation to mention the health condition of the supreme leader, where is the intention of such a statement, and where is the background?

[박원곤]

First of all, it is difficult to judge whether or not you are really infected with Corona. Overall, if you look at the context of what Kim Yo-jong was talking about, it was in the context that Kim Jong-un worked hard for the people in the situation of Corona 19.

In the Kim Jong-un era, one of their most core ideologies is the so-called popular mass firstism. So, although we have actually experienced COVID-19, we are still doing it, and it is very difficult, isn’t it?

In reality, there are many pains and sufferings as well as economic difficulties, and I think Kim Jong-un emphasized that he is sharing such suffering with the residents. Through this, what North Korea always talks about is leadership of leadership and sacrificial leadership. I think it has been expressed once again.

[앵커]

Professor Jingoo Cho, do you have any last words to add?

[조진구]

I’m thinking the same thing. Another thing we need to be careful about is the position of Vice President Kim Yeo-jeong. When I mentioned who attended the quarantine meeting this time, I was actually talking between a member of the Politburo and a candidate member of the Politburo.

There is still no way to confirm whether this will actually become a member of the Politburo, but we should pay that much attention because we think that Kim Yo-jong’s remarks are not those of Vice-President Kim Yo-jung, but instead of Chairman Kim Jong-un. At the plenary meeting of the Presidium of the Supreme People’s Assembly not long ago, I mentioned that the Supreme People’s Assembly would be convened on the 7th of the next month.

And at the same time, several laws were enacted, amended, and supplemented, and one of them was the Space Development Act. That was corrected and supplemented, but what does this mean? I think there is a possibility of a nuclear test, but I think that this is for preparation for launching a satellite or to provide a basis to support it. What should be done is that after the Ukrainian war, Russia hinted at the use of nuclear weapons a lot.

It is about how such things will have a significant impact on North Korea. I think we need to observe these issues more carefully, whether they are developing tactical nuclear weapons or deploying them to front-line units.

[앵커]

Okay. Let’s hear it here. So far, we have talked with Cho Jin-goo, director of the Japan Center of the Institute for Far Eastern Studies at Kyungnam University, and Park Won-gon, a professor of North Korean Studies at Ewha Womans University. Thank you very much today.

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